Thursday, January 22, 2009

Delinquency Rates Expected To Rise

Homeowner delinquency rates are expected to be higher than they've been in the past 17 years, according to TransUnion Trend Data.

TransUnion estimates a 54 percent increase in mortgages that are 60 or more days delinquent, from 4.66 percent at the end of 2008 to a projected 7.17 percent at the end of 2009. Prior to the housing and credit crisis, delinquencies have been around 2 percent for most of the decade.
TransUnion first began recording statistics in 1992, and samples a database of 27 million anonymous consumer records.

Mortgages won't be alone in the increase in delinquencies. TransUnion estimates delinquency rates for auto loans will increase from 0.80 percent at the end of 2008 to1.03 percent by the end of 2009.

If the unemployment rate increases, as many expect it will, borrowers will have a more difficult time making their obligations.

James Chessen, chief economist for the American Bankers Association told The Detroit Free Press, “The key factor that drives any consumer credit delinquency is job loss.”

The forecasts are bad news for consumers as credit markets continue to tighten, and even well-qualified borrowers will have to shop around for loans.

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